Can Maria Sharapova finish as the year-end No. 1?

September 28th, 2011

A surprise loss by Caroline Wozniacki in Tokyo opens the door slightly for Maria Sharapova to take over No. 1 and finish the WTA season in the top spot for the first time in her career.

According to WTA communications guru Kevin Fischer, Sharapova would have to reach the final of this week's tournament in Japan and win in Beijing early next month to have a chance of returning to No. 1 prior to the year-end championships in Istanbul. Given Sharapova's play over the past six months and that Wozniacki could make things easier by losing early (like she did on Wednesday to Kaia Kanepi ), it's a very real possibility.

Order would finally be restored in the WTA. No longer would an undeserving player hold the No. 1 ranking and we could focus on asking Wozniacki other questions, as the top-ranking burden would be lifted once and for all. But lost in the knee-jerk reaction to Wozniacki's possible booting is another question: Is Maria Sharapova any more deserving of the top ranking?

Take a look at these two 2011 résumés: (Chronological Grand Slam results listed first)

Player A: semifinal/third round/fourth round/semifinal; six overall titles, one premier title.

Player B: fourth round/semifinal/final/third round; two titles, two premier titles

Player B advanced one more round in Grand Slams and won one more second-tier title, but was four overall tournaments behind in the win column. Player B's résumé is slightly better but not so much better than it suggests a rankings atrocity that she, who you've already figured out is Maria Sharapova, should be behind Player A, Wozniacki. (There are other stats beyond these, of course. Sharapova was played fewer tournaments and doesn't have as many early exits.)

The main difference is that because Sharapova has been there before and contends in Grand Slams (as opposed to Wozniacki, whose major losses are considered an inevitability), there's the perception that she's a No. 1 player. And I feed into the same thing. It feels like Sharapova is a better No. 1.

The ranking isn't a lifetime achievement though, it's a yearly gauge and I'm not really sure 2011 Maria Sharapova is that much more deserving of 2011 Caroline Wozniacki. Her three prior Grand Slams wins and top ranking matter as much to this year as the Boston Red Sox two recent World Series titles are relevant in their baseball playoff push. The past has no bearing on Sharapova's current worth as No. 1.

The problem we have with Wozniacki -- she hasn't won a Grand Slam -- is still there with Sharapova, we'd just have to amend it to, "she hasn't won a Grand Slam this year." But that's getting ahead of ourselves. There's a long way to go this season and if Wozniacki has proven anything during her reign it's that she's adept at staying on top.

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